November 2025

Newsletter November 2025

November Recap

November was a busy month for Women in Finance. With weekly workshops, internship applications, and dynamic markets, November can be deemed a month defined by growth, ambition, and collaboration. 

The workshops this month covered a range of topics. Specifically, WiF members had the opportunity to learn about Quant Finance, Sales & Trading, and the Real Estate sector within Investment Banking. Through our experienced speakers, we had the chance to truly understand each division, gaining insight into the technical skills required, day-to-day responsibilities, and broader industry trends shaping these fields. These sessions not only broadened members’ understanding of potential career paths but also empowered them to approach internship applications with greater confidence and clarity. 

Don’t miss out on our social media where we post our weekly tips, market news, and market quizzes as well as stories of women that keep inspiring us!

News Recap

Google Edges toward a Historic $4 trillion Valuation amid AI-Driven Momentum

November continued the trend of surging tech valuations. After Nvidia and Apple made headlines in October, Google is now the latest giant approaching a significant milestone: a market capitalization of $4 trillion.

Google’s stock has been boosted by strong performance in its AI and cloud divisions, with Google Cloud reporting record demand for enterprise AI tools. The company’s recent announcements around new multimodal models and expanded AI infrastructure have reinforced investor confidence that Google will remain a key player in the rapidly evolving AI ecosystem.

Another major driver behind Google’s rise is the company’s push into AI-optimized hardware and data-center expansion. With global demand for computing power increasing, Google has secured a series of long-term deals to support governments, research institutions, and large corporations, signaling steady growth potential.

This places Google on track to join the exclusive “multi-trillion tech club,” underscoring how central AI has become to market valuations in 2025.

Model Risk: Sources and Mitigation

The Challenge of Model Risk In the ever-changing finance domain, it becomes increasingly more challenging to make accurate predictions as new shocks, shifting correlations, and rapid market dynamics make the future uncertain. While financial models are unable to "see the future", they remain a key tool in aiding decision-making. However, even the best models come with risks that are often overlooked but can amplify shocks and turn minor misjudgments into large-scale failures.

Model risk is the potential for adverse effects or material losses arising from the use of a flawed model for decision-making. Some familiar sources of risk are design flaws, mathematical errors, data issues, and, in the most serious cases, excessive reliance on historical data and misimplementation of the model as a whole. Sometimes, there might not be anything inherently wrong with the model or its application: the issue lies in the original overconfident assumptions. Models often assume stable relationships; however, they immediately crumble under stress. Correlations that appear low or stable in quiet periods can move sharply, invalidating diversification assumptions. Similarly, models rely on historical data, but if the past taught us anything, it is that there are no patterns in how markets behave; therefore, we can only use past data to outline possible ranges of outcomes, not to predict exact dynamics in a future stress scenario.

Implications What does it mean for risk managers? They need to be extra cautious even if they are confident in their models. A good solution for mitigating risk is to develop multiple models under different assumptions and compare outcomes, though this approach carries significant cost implications. Stress tests should incorporate structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics rather than relying solely on historical events that may never repeat. Finally, risk managers need to assess the models' application in practice, evaluate the current financial climate, and ensure the models will remain relevant in the future, since mathematical precision alone is not enough to make accurate predictions. 

News Highlight: Nvidia Feels the Impact of Google's Gemini 3 Debut

Nvidia Feels the Impact of Google's Gemini 3 Debut With November coming to a close, Google chose to end the month on a high note by releasing Gemini 3, its largest language model yet, which promises to surpass OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The new model was trained using Alphabet’s own AI-specialized chips, known as TPUs, rather than the usual Nvidia chips that power OpenAI’s systems. 

Until now, Google’s TPUs had been available only for customers to rent through its cloud computing system, but discussions are now emerging about these chips being pitched to major potential clients, including Meta, as alternatives to Nvidia’s chips used in their data centres.

As Google gains momentum in artificial intelligence and is increasingly viewed by the market as the “clear-cut AI leader”, as stated by Mike O’Rourke at Jones Trading, Nvidia’s stock has begun to feel the impact (as seen in the graph). On Tuesday, 25 November 2025, Nvidia shares closed 2.6% lower after falling more than 7% in early trading, erasing roughly $115bn in market value. 

NVIDIA’s Decline in November 2025 After Gemini 3 Release

Debate Section: If the AI Bubble Pops, Who Wins?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on December 9-10, and policymakers are scrambling to evaluate if a further rate cut is needed. The previously widespread opinion of a decreasing rate is now being contradicted by newly released government data. However, the discussion remains challenging, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release a jobs report until after the meeting. So, will rates be cut? Pro Despite many changes in market expectations over the past month, the possibility of a December rate cut has strengthened. With unemployment rising to 4.4% in September and job openings falling to about 7 million, the labor market is struggling. This creates an environment in which the Fed is likely to act prudently to avoid further deterioration. As Goldman Sachs noted, weaker job growth combined with relatively stable inflation has effectively "sealed" the case for a 25bp cut. J.P. Morgan, previously expecting no rate cut until January, reversed its view last week, citing increasingly dovish signals from senior Fed officials. In particular, New York Fed President John Williams stated that he "still sees room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to neutral," reinforcing expectations of an earlier cut. At the October FOMC meeting, several policymakers expressed concern over their "ability to accurately assess economic conditions" due to gaps in federal data following the government shutdown. With no significant data releases before the December 9–10 meeting, the September labor report is likely to be the last considerable input; rising unemployment points toward easing.Taken together, softened labor-market conditions and increasingly dovish Fed signals point to the same conclusion: the Fed is more likely than not to deliver a December rate cut.

Con

On the other side of the argument, some economists argue that the labor market is not as weak as the higher unemployment rate might suggest: in September, 119,000 jobs were created in the US economy, beating analysts' expectations, and 470,000 workers entered the market. In addition, wage growth increased by 3.8% YoY, further downplaying the need for a rate cut. Another central point of discussion is inflation. The current 3% inflation rate is already above the Fed's 2% inflation target, and Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, raised concerns that more than half of the items in the CPI are rising even faster than 3%. The six-week government shutdown has further complicated inflation analysis, endorsing the more prudent approach of some analysts. Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, said that she "would be hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information". It is argued that a further rate cut, which would make the divergence from the target inflation rate even greater, would also diminish the Fed's credibility. Hence, the lack of a clear conclusion about the US labor market's performance and the fact that the inflation rate remains above 2% indicate that a more restrictive policy stance would be wiser. As the December FOMC meeting approaches, uncertainty remains. On one hand, softening labor-market indicators and increasingly dovish Fed communication strengthen the case for a rate cut. On the other hand, inflation above target may outweigh pessimistic labor market reports and encourage policymakers to keep rates unchanged. Whether the Fed chooses to prioritise downside protection or to wait for more precise data will shape the path of monetary policy and investor sentiment heading into 2026.  

The Quiet Before Europe’s Energy Storm

The recent decline in European gas prices has given markets a sense of comfort. TTF prices have fallen back to levels last seen before the energy crisis, and winter contracts imply that traders expect a smooth season ahead. But beneath the surface, Europe’s apparent energy calm is built on foundations far more fragile than prices suggest.

A helpful way to think about the problem is to separate Europe’s energy situation into three components: storage, imports, and demand. On storage, Europe is entering winter with meaningfully lower gas reserves than in previous years. Most notably, Germany, as Europe’s largest gas consumer, has some of the weakest storage levels for this point in the season in over a decade.

On imports, the picture is no better. Europe is already drawing LNG at close to full capacity, while the US, as the marginal global supplier, has little room to raise exports further. Any additional cargoes would require Europe to outbid other buyers, which typically happens only when prices spike sharply.

Meanwhile, demand is increasingly sensitive to cold weather. As Europe generates more electricity from natural gas, periods of weak wind or solar output would push consumption higher just as heating needs rise.

In financial markets, this mismatch creates an apparent asymmetry: downside price risk is limited, while upside risk is significant. A cold winter could lift gas prices sharply, pressure industrial margins, worsen Europe’s inflation trajectory, and complicate the ECB’s path to easing. Therefore, Europe’s current calm should not be mistaken for resilience. It may simply be the quiet before the storm.

2 Truths & 1 Lie 

Results will be posted to Instagram!

• The Federal Reserve is increasingly likely to cut interest rates at its December meeting, as comments from officials such as Mary Daly have emphasized labour-market vulnerability as outweighing inflation risk.

• The U.S. NASDAQ Composite index posted a gain of over 10% in November 2025 as investor optimism surged ahead of year-end.

• The S&P 500’s 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average in late November, a classic “golden cross” that often signals medium-term bullish momentum.
  

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What’s next?

We are looking forward to all of the workshops we have planned in the upcoming month!

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